The Breeders’ Cup gets underway for the 30th time on Friday, and the two-day championship event is the Holy Grail for horseplayers.
There are 14 Breeders’ Cup races (23 overall) and with the top horses coming from all points of the U.S. and 16 coming from overseas, each and every race is a tough handicapping puzzle.
We have seen more than our fair share of upsets, and it only takes picking a couple of live longshots over the two days to turn a handsome profit.
The average exacta payoff in the Classic is $219.00 and in the Sprint the average is checking in at $319.00.
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Last year Shanghai Bobby got the job done in the Juvenile as the chalk paying $4.60, but the exacta still returned $90.80. The average for the 29 runnings of the Juvenile is $180.00.
Expect to see the toteboard continue to light up over the next couple of days. Here are a couple of live longshots to include in your exotic wagers:
Dirt Mile
Brujo de Olleros (8-1) exits the Kelso (G2) at Belmont Park where the five-year-old made a good late rally but was unable to get to the gate to wire winner Graydar, who was taking full advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. He earned a career top speed fig in the effort and it looks as if the Team Valor runner is sitting on a good one here. He is a Group 1 winner in Uruguay but has managed to just one win in five starts in the U.S., taking the Carl Hanford Memorial two back at Delaware Park by 6 1/4 lengths.
The five-year-old is going from one turn to two but he always seems to fire, landing in the exacta in eight of his 10 career starts. He should get a solid pace to run at here and worth tossing in the mix if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Ready to Act (8-1) will need to be ready to act better than he did last out in the stretch of the Natalma (G2) at Woodbine. The filly was heading for home for the win but veered in badly in the stretch and dumped the jockey as the chalk. The Natalma has produced a pair of winners of this race, More Than Real in 2010 and Stephanie's Kitten in 2011 prepped in the Natalma and then won this.
The filly was a good-looking maiden winner in her debut at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs. In the time since her last outing trainer Chad Brown has probably worked out the kinks and she gets a new jockey in Joel Rosario. Brown won this race in 2008 with Maram. He will be busy saddling four in here and it looks as if we should get a fair price on this filly. U.S. based runners have won four of the five runnings of this race, only Flotilla last year was an overseas invader.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Sweet Lulu (8-1) cuts back to seven furlongs here after a game runner up finish in the Cotillion (G1) at Philly behind Close Hatches. The filly made her stakes debut two back in the Test (G1) at seven furlongs where the filly pressed the early pace and finished gamely to win by a hard fought head. The outing was her first on conventional dirt after racing on the fake stuff in her first three career starts, all wins.
This gal would be the first three-year-old to win this race but we only have six runnings to look at. The filly is in good hands with the Jerry Hollendorfer barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. The filly owns solid early and mid pace numbers and should get a good trip on or sitting just off the pace breaking from her far outside post.
Juvenile
New Year's Day (8-1) is one of two in the race sent out by the Bob Baffert barn that has won this race twice, with Vindication in 2002 and Midshipman in 2008, both at Santa Anita. The colt checked in third in his debut sprinting and then broke his maiden in a good looking effort last out going a mile on the polytrack at Del Mar. The runner up in that race was Bond Holder, who came back to win the Frontrunner (G1) in his next outing on Sept. 28.
The colt has solid works on the morning tab and this guy has a nice pedigree. The $425,000 purchase is by Street Cry out of the stakes winner Justwistlledixie ($449,427). The colt appears as if he is handling the main track at Santa Anita fine in the mornings.
Michael Dempsey’s Breeders’ Cup Report $34.95 (Fri-Sat)
Michael’s Breeders’ Cup Report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for every race on the Friday and Saturday card from Santa Anita Park on Nov. 1-2.
The Breeders’ Cup offers 14 championship races over two days, bringing together the best top horses, trainers, and jockeys from around the world, this year to compete at Santa Anita Park.